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I will conclude by adding the 10s30s chart for Greece. A lot of people are wondering when we know it is too late to fix the deficit, what is the point of no return, and what to look for in the markets to signal that the game is over. Well in my opinion, this is exactly what the "oops" moment looks like: when people go from talking about the steep curve being an indicator of good things to come, and then all of a sudden we trade from +100bps down to -500bps as the Fixed Income curve morphs into a distressed high yield curve. It happens just as fast as a president can get kicked out of power like we saw in Tunisia. The general population has embraced the fear of inflation, the talk about austerity and need to fix the deficit, but none of the Republican politicians bringing it up of close to none really believes that it could be too late and we are done. Just think about how quickly the Soviet Union collapsed... those things happen very quickly, and can happen to everyone, not just tiny countries most people can't even place on a map. Does this mean it happens tomorrow? Probably not, but that is precisely the point: it can and most likely will happen quickly enough that almost everybody is caught pants down.
Того же автора, да.