Я сейчас практически не делюсь ссылками на всякие истории про текущие события. Уж точно не в ЖЖ — совсем неудобный формат.
Но вот в последние дни коллективный гений авторов ZeroHedge уж очень смачно шутит. Вот например вчерашняя чеканнейшая формулировка:
French Bund spreads have just crossed 147 bps as the "cash bond long yet unable to hedge with CDS" crowd realizes that the Italian contagion is about to hit Paris. And unable to hedge using creative modern financial instruments, said crowd has reverted to the good old fashioned version thereof. We call it selling. Expect the spread to hit 150 bps momentarily.*
I think the ECB will get the printing presses rolling before we get to the stage where markets seriously panic over the solvency of the eurozone's core, or of its banks. And when I say I expect the ECB to get the printing presses rolling, I mean QE of the unbridled unsterilizable sort, and of which The Ben Bernak is so fond.
This action won't be taken lightly. In fact, I doubt it will be taken at all until the market puts a gun firmly to the ECB's head and forces it to choose between its two great loves: the euro or its Germanic belief in hard money. "You can't have both", the market will say, as it cocks its gun and slowly squeezes the trigger. And my guess is that the ECB will let its principles go and sell the strategy to Germans as a hard-money sabbatical. After all, if the hard-money Swiss National Bank can commit to unlimited money printing, so too can the ECB.
I also suspect such an action would be the final kick of the can. Money printing buys time and nothing else. But I think it could buy the eurozone quite a lot of time, certainly enough to be open-minded towards owning the cheap assets the episode might throw up. Let's face it, equities would likely become very cheap in the sort of panic that would force the ideologically Germanic ECB to print with the abandon of a Ben Bernanke.
Hard-money sabbatical. Сука, чтобы я так умел писать!