Male C. Pig a.k.a. Svinopolist (piggymouse) wrote,
Male C. Pig a.k.a. Svinopolist

QotD: On the Death of Globalizations

Недавнее интервью Павловского и Сысуева на Йеху Москвы (screamager, thanks for sharing!) и особенно фраза ГОП про предвоенный 2013 год окончательно заставило меня выписать ключевой фрагмент, завершающий "The Ascent of Money" Фергюссона, где он делает изящный поворот в обсуждении современного экономического симбиоза США и Китая.

Perhaps, on reflection, we have been here before. A hundred years ago, in the first age of globalization, many investors thought there was a similarly symbiotic relationship between the world’s financial centre, Britain, and continental Europe’s most dynamic industrial economy. That economy was Germany’s. Then, as today, there was a fine line between symbiosis and rivalry. Could anything trigger another breakdown of globalization like the one that happened in 1914? The obvious answer is a deterioration of political relations between the United States and China, whether over trade, Taiwan, Tibet or some other as yet subliminal issue. The scenario may seem implausible. Yet it is easy to see how future historians could retrospectively construct plausible chains of causation to explain such a turn of events. The advocates of ‘war guilt’ would blame a more assertive China, leaving others to lament the sins of omission of a weary American titan. Scholars of international relations would no doubt identify the systemic origins of the war in the breakdown of free trade, the competition for natural resources or the clash of civilizations. Couched in the language of historical explanation, a major conflagration can start to seem unnervingly probable in our time, just as it turned out to be in 1914. Some may even be tempted to say that the surge of commodity prices in the period from 2003 until 2008 reflected some unconscious market anticipation of the coming conflict.

One important lesson of history is that major wars can arise even when economic globalization is very far advanced and the hegemonic position of an English-speaking empire seems fairly secure.

С таймингом старина Найал не угадал пока, так что нам везёт, хотя тренд и не сломался ещё. Ну и это всё конечно похоже на поворот в разговоре Глеба Олеговича, через пару реплик после упоминания сочинской олимпиады:

Мне его жалко, он превратился в трагическую фигуру. Я не знаю, как другие люди на его месте в этой ситуации вели, но, по крайней мере, надо было бы уменьшить в таких случаях, стоит быстро уменьшить расходы. На всякий случай. Просто, потому что мы прекрасно провели Олимпиаду 1980 года. Блестяще. Это было прекрасно технически, и кстати по спортивным результатам.

Tags: aktuell, link, politics, quote

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