March 29th, 2006
Back in 2004, I wrote a brief on how the US, unable to contain the growth of Iraq's open source insurgency, was planning to use loyalist paramilitaries (the Latin American solution) to contain it.
“The establishment of… loyalist paramilitaries in Iraq would quickly put the insurgency on the defensive. Over the next year, their activities will likely result in a level of ‘controlled chaos’ sufficient to allow the US to withdraw its forces. Additionally, these militias could operate while the government maintains a fig leaf of democracy.”
I ended the brief with this caveat on the consequences of this choice: institutionalized corruption…, human rights abuses…, long term instability…
Unfortunately, the US didn't take advantage of the opportunity to withdraw during 2005. Decision makers mistook the controlled chaos enabled by the use of militias for progress towards their maximal goals in the country… The US is now caught between the militias and the guerrillas and the situation will deteriorate quickly.
Никому не кажется, что здесь описывается стратегия России в Чечне за последнюю пару лет? Рамзан Кадыров, превед!